Who Supports Free Trade?

It has been over fourteen years since Congress first debated the economic impact of NAFTA on the United States. After fourteen years of NAFTA, where does the American public stand on free trade? In December 2006, the Pew Research Center asked a nationally representative survey of 1,502 adults this very question.

According to the survey results, nearly half (44%) of Americans believe that free trade agreements like NAFTA are a "good thing," whereas 35% feel that free trade agreements are a "bad thing" and 21% are unsure:

Self-identified Democrats and Republicans both approve of free trade agreements like NAFTA, but Republicans favor them by a wider margin. However, Kerry voters in 2004 actually disapproved of free trade agreements:

Ideologically, self-described hard conservatives and hard liberals oppose NAFTA, but "moderates" support them:

Younger people strongly favor free trade agreements, and disapproval of free trade agreements grows in older generations:

Asians overwhemingly favor free trade agreements:

Christians disapprove of free trade agreements, but non-Christians do not:

Other than people who never go to church and people who go to church more than once a week, churchgoers favor free trade agreements like NAFTA:

Internet users favor free trade agreements, whereas Internet non-users are evenly split:

Members of labor unions strongly disapprove of free trade agreements:

Given that most Democrats support free trade, and that most Democrats voted for Kerry, one would expect most Democrats who voted for Kerry to support free trade. However, this isn't the case. According to the survey, we do know that most self-identified Republicans voted overwhelmingly for Bush (91% to 5%), most self-identified Democrats voted overwhelmingly for Kerry (74.5% to 14.6%), and unaffiliated voters were much more evenly split (44.6% Bush to 37.4% Kerry).

So if most Democrats did in fact vote for Kerry, why didn't most Kerry voters support free trade? Interestingly, the 15% of self-identified Democrats who voted for Bush also favor free trade agreements more strongly than other Democrats (52% favor and 26% oppose). Also, independents who approve of free trade agreements prefer Bush (by 17%), whereas independents who disapprove of free trade agreements voted for Bush and Kerry about equally.

In other words, this data indicates that Bush was able to attract support from self-identified Democrats who strongly approved of free trade agreements. Statistically, we can't claim that these Democrats' views on free trade caused them to vote for Bush. However, I believe that because these Democrats believed in arguments that favor free trade, they were more susceptible to persuasion by Bush supporters.

In this sense, Bill Clinton may have fulfilled his short-term goals by pushing NAFTA, but he undercut Democrats in the long term. As a popular Democrat, he was well-positioned to persuade other Democrats in the merits of free trade. By persuading some of these Democrats, he ultimately may have made it easier for Bush II to pick up these same voters.

It's also interesting to note that support for free trade doesn't fall neatly in the traditional liberal-conservative continuum that describes political ideology. Although the liberal-conservative designation is an adequate shortcut to determine attitudes on other issues, it clearly doesn't work for many economic controversies.

Finally, I initially assumed that Internet users might have approved of free trade more because they are more educated and have higher incomes. However, support for free trade is relatively stable across income and education. Only those who have no high school education or make less than $20,000 significantly oppose free trade. This is a very small part of the population and doesn't explain the difference in Internet usage. So, there might be something about Internet usage itself that relates to attitudes on free trade.

In part 2, I'll examine how beliefs and attitudes about trade impact Americans' perceptions of free trade agreements.

Disclaimer:

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press bears no responsibility for the analyses or interpretations of the data presented here. Data from the Pew Research Center's December 2006 News Interest Index.