Joe Knollenberg

O.K., this is kinda fun. You can go through the FEC filings for candidates to see how they spent their money and who their money came from. "Schedule A" lists individual contributions and "Schedule B" lists campaign expenditures. For example, you can see how Joe Knollenberg spent his campaign money to design and place the billboards trashing Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The FEC's interface is a little convoluted, so I uploaded Knollenberg, Walberg, Rogers, and McCotter's disclosures. You can download them via YouSendit or Rapidshare.

Here's how the vulnerable incumbents fared:

Knollenberg:

Beginning Cash: $134,287
Latest Cash On Hand: $279,794

Knollenberg spent $3,105,161 in the last election cycle.

Walberg:

Beginning Cash: $37,961
Latest Cash On Hand: $159,893

Walberg spent $1,225,137 in the last election cycle.

McCotter:

Beginning Cash: $100,172
Latest Cash On Hand: $154,120

McCotter spent $875,708 in the last election cycle.

Rogers:

Beginning Cash: $352,543
Latest Cash On Hand: $393,097

Rogers spent $1,863,914 in the last election cycle.

Here's how to read this: "Beginning Cash" is what they were left with after the 2006 election and "Cash On Hand" is the amount they have currently. To put their numbers into context, I included the amount that they spent on keeping their seats in the 2006 cycle.

In 2004 Rogers spent $797,146 and was left with $728,566 cash on hand, Knollenberg spent $1,412,320 and was left with $439,168 cash on hand, and McCotter spent $735,845 and was left with $104,309 cash on hand.  So, in 2006, they all spent more money defending their seats and were left with less cash on hand than in 2004.  Money wise, Knollenberg and Rogers spent dramatically more in 2006 than they did in 2004.

Now what I'm really interested in is the number of individual contributors each candidate had.

UPDATE: The Swing State Project commented on Walberg's numbers.

Tim Walberg's underwhelming total of $136K certainly won't deter a top-shelf candidate from giving this Club For Growth stooge a hard challenge next year. MI-07 and FL-10 have got to be in the top five Democratic House targets this cycle.

UPDATE 2: Adam B over at Daily Kos has a fantastic primer on how to go through the FEC reports.

UPDATE 3: Bowers has more.

The Iraq supplemental bill, which sets a certain date for withdrawing our troops from Iraq, passed out of the U.S. House today. Unsurprisingly, all nine Michigan Republicans voted against the bill and to continue the war.

"Mistakes have been made in the execution of the war. No one is disputing that," Knollenberg said. "But we should give the administration’s new policy a chance to work before presupposing its failure and our ultimate defeat in Iraq."

"New" policy? Is he serious? How many more last chances are they going to get from us?

Just for the record:

In addition to Stupak and Conyers, Michigan's House Democrats are Dale Kildee of Flint, Sandy Levin of Royal Oak, Carolyn Kilpatrick of Detroit and John Dingell of Dearborn.

In addition to Camp and Knollenberg, Michigan's House Republicans are Pete Hoekstra of Holland, Vern Ehlers of Grand Rapids, Fred Upton of St. Joseph, Tim Walberg of Tipton, Mike Rogers of Brighton, Candice Miller of Harrison Township, and Thad McCotter of Livonia.

It's also worth noting that 60% of Michigan's Congressional delegation voted to continue the war. However, almost 60% of Michigan residents favor withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq. That doesn't sound very representative to me.

I came across a recent blog post that does an incredible job of explaining why Joe Knollenberg's new campaign is, quite frankly, moronic.

• He reinforces the false assumption that domestic vehicles are less fuel-efficient than imports. GM sells more types of vehicles that get 30 MPG or higher than any other car maker, foreign or domestic.

• He reinforces the undeserved negative bias from the press that all the US companies can make are big fat gas-guzzling SUV's and that they are incapable of building anything else.
• He's drawing undue negative attention to the fact that US automakers are against the CAFE increases. The reality is that ALL automakers, foreign and domestic, oppose any increase to CAFE standards.
• US automakers have a hard enough time selling cars in California without Joe telling their governor and federal congresspeople to "drop dead".
• Who do you think will be the winner of public sentiment in this "us against them", Michigan vs. California, campaign he has launched?
• and for the record, Joe... a Congressman, by definition, cannot start a "grassroots" campaign.

Change is coming to Michigan, and Hawaii Joe will be one of the first to go.

Bush's approval rating in Michigan is sinking to embarrassingly low levels. No surprise, it's related to Iraq.

Clear majorities of Michiganders say President George W. Bush's new Iraq strategy won't work, and they doubt that pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq would increase the risk of terrorist attacks in the United States, a Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll shows.

...

Bush's 26% approval rating in Michigan is the lowest of his presidency. Nationally, Bush's approval rating has dipped below 30% only twice since he took office in 2001, both within the last year but neither as low as 26%. His approval rating was 84% in Michigan after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

"It's one of the lowest marks since polling was invented," said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the Des Moines, Iowa, polling firm that conducted the survey.

...

Only 15% of those polled have strong confidence that Bush's move to add 21,500 troops will succeed.

"I believe enough of our guys and girls have died and been wounded over there," said Amy Wieleba, 51, of Novi. "I don't see what purpose it will accomplish. They hate us enough over there as it is."

Somehow, Dave Camp, Joe Knollenberg, and Tim Walberg all continue to support the President's escalation plan to varying degrees. Even worse, Representatives Ehlers, Hoekstra, and McCotter are avoiding the question altogether. Michiganders clearly do not support the escalation and we must hold our Representatives accountable on this issue.

By now, you have assuredly heard that DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen mentioned both Walberg and Knollenberg by name as top targets in 2008. Ideally, this will translate to better candidate recruitment and funding.

Kos felt that McCotter's district deserved a look, too:

Another to watch for 2008 is MI-11, where newcomer Dem Tony Trupiano lost to incumbent Thaddeus McCotter 54-43 despite having been outspent $876K to $83K. And if it seems like 11 points is too huge a spread to overcome, consider that in 2004, now-Reps Boyda, Hodes and McNerney lost by 15, 20, and 22 points, respectively. Trupiano impressed me from afar. I'll be watching if 1) he runs, and 2) if the Michigan netroots embraces him. He's got great potential to follow in the footsteps of the above-named Congresspersons.

Let's not forget that Jonathan Singer over at MyDD believes that we can challenge as many as seven districts in Michigan.

This is very exciting, and 2008 is assuredly shaping up to be very different than 2006. Although the national scrutiny is nice, it's important to remember that the attention in itself isn't a ticket to victory. Especially in the case of potential "netroots" candidates such as Trupiano, it is up to us to create the infrastructure to get our candidates "in play." Once some of these districts are "in play," it doesn't guarantee success.

Still, this election cycle is shaping up to be a heck of a lot more fun than the last one.

According to the Detroit Free Press, Ford has lost a staggering $12.7 billion dollars in 2006.

Ford Motor Co. posted a net loss of $12.7 billion, or $6.79 a share, in 2006, the worst loss in the company's 103-year history.

That tops Ford’s worst year on record, which was 1992, when the automaker posted a $7.39-billion loss. It also tops General Motors Corp.’s $10.6-billion loss in 2005.

Ford’s staggering, historic loss comes after the company bled $5.8 billion, or $3.05 per share, during the last three months of the year. That was on top of the $7 billion in losses through September.

Of course, Joe Knollenberg argues that an increase in CAFE standards would have an adverse impact on Michigan's economic development.

Although we need to keep Ford afloat at any cost, hiding from reality is not the answer.  The American public is demanding more fuel-efficient vehicles, and Michigan manufacturers can provide reasonable increases in fuel efficiency without hurting job growth.

UPDATE:  David has some insightful commentary on raising CAFE standards for automakers.

Although our legislative priorities now are more important than the elections up ahead, it would also be useful to start thinking about some of our upcoming races. Given the DCCC's updated criteria for targeting U.S. House races, we need to start discussing how we want to approach these elections in 2008.

According to the Hotline, Michigan is "the one untapped resource left for" Democrats to increase their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Michigan Republicans currently hold a 9 to 6 lead despite losing the popular vote, so this assertion seems reasonable. In particular, MI-09 (Representative Knollenberg) and MI-07 (Representative Walberg) are identified as "must contest" districts.

Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-MI 09) didn't fare much better against liberal talk show host Nancy Skinner (D). He won only 51% of the vote - the first time he's won by a single-digit margin.

The Skinner campaign took a gutsy approach and did a great job setting themselves up as the "opposition" to the corrupt Knollenberg. Their campaign operatives were energetic and their field and Internet outreach was beyond impressive. However, I feel that they should have been able to raise more money in such an affluent district. As first-time candidates, Eric Massa and Tim Walz raised $1.4 million and $1.2 million in poorer districts. Compared to that, the $400K that Nancy Skinner raised feels underwhelming.

Given the funding disparity in the race, its close outcome is a testament to just how unpopular Knollenberg is in his district. We probably won't have the advantages that we did in 2006, but with increased name ID and better fundraising, some activists feel that Nancy could give it another go. However, others believe that someone more in tune with the district's ideological leanings would have a much better chance at winning.

Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI 07) didn't even win a majority of the vote despite running against an underfunded opponent. And speculation abounds that ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz (R) could run as a Dem against him in '08.

Schwarz showed a high degree of party loyalty to the Republican Caucus in his voting behavior as a member of Congress, so it is difficult to make the case for Schwarz as a Democrat. If anything, he would be better served by mounting a Republican primary challenge or by running as an "Independent Republican" in the general election. What he decides is going to have a big impact on our ability to win this race.

I'll come out and say it: a less "absurd" candidate would serve us more well in this district. For perennial candidates, a Democratic "wave" year like 2006 is as good as it gets.

It is clear that a credible candidate will have a very good chance at winning this district. Walberg is too conservative and left a bad taste in a lot of peoples' mouths. The Republicans allocated significant resources (both in money and in appearances by high-profile figures) to keep this district in 2006, and there's no reason it will get any easier for them in 2008.

The article also mentions Thad McCotter as being potentially vulnerable.

I like the new DCCC targeting criteria, especially because it includes several of our districts that were neglected in 2006. The DCCC intends to target districts "where Republicans won by less than 5%, seats won by Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election, districts occupied by ethically challenged incumbents and Republican seats likely to open." Based on this, Knollenberg and Walberg will likely be targeted, and both Thad McCotter and Mike Rogers could be identified as well.

I've mentioned money, but money is by far from the only factor that is relevant to this process. The new DCCC criteria also places a strong emphasis on candidates that have significant netroots and grassroots support. This is important, because it allows bloggers and local activists to play an increased role in the election process, from candidate recruitment to the eventual outcomes of these races. Thankfully, we already have the District Watch blogs to start focusing on these districts at the individual level.

With all of this in mind, it is important that we start having a conversation about candidate recruitment and what qualities we are looking for, so that we can better help the party to develop winning candidates and ultimately effective legislators.

Courtesy of the Morning Sun, the Detroit News, and the Lansing State Journal, here's how Congressmen Camp, Knollenberg, and Walberg feel about the President's plan to increase the number of troops we have in Iraq:

Camp:

Rep. Dave Camp, R-Midland, said Saturday that the Bush administration's change in strategy in Iraq is the United States' "last chance at success." Speaking to Republican leaders from across mid-Michigan at the party's annual conference in Clare, Camp said putting more troops on the ground, loosening the rules of engagement and demanding more of Iraqi troops had to work.

Knollenberg:

Troop increase : Yes, but only with the condition that real progress is seen within about 90 days. Withdrawal: "If things continue to spiral downward, we have to reassess our options. I don't give carte blanche support with an open-ended promise."

Although they have changed their tone considerably, Camp and Knollenberg are still stubbornly advocating a failed policy that is sure to throw Iraq into further chaos.  Before Michigan's Congressional delegation decides to rubber-stamp another one of the President's policies, there needs to be a real change in the way that this war is waged.

Walberg:

Walberg said he favors the president's proposal because, "The majority of the people still want our United States forces to come home in victory." Rogers, who serves on the House Intelligence Committee, released a statement that said, "While I have concerns that a surge in troops may not have the desired outcome, I do believe the commander in chief needs to be able to make his case to the nation," Rogers wrote.

Of the three, Walberg is the most "out there."  In offering little more than a tired talking point in place of a real solution, he does his constituents a disservice by avoiding one of the most critical policy questions of our time.  If Walberg wants to use our need for "victory" as a rationale to support an escalation, he must define what a "victory" means, against whom we are to be victorious, and what exactly a "victory" in Iraq would look like.  At this point, none of these have been defined clearly.

SSP: Skinner Should Run Again

Here's what the Swing State Project had to say about Nancy Skinner:

Nancy Skinner MI 9
This is probably the greatest under-target in the nation and for that very reason Nancy Skinner should be given another shot in this district should she want it. One huge accomplishment of hers was to run through the considerable about of money Congressman Knollenberg had stored up over years and years. She ran a very good race and needs another chance. It also be noted this race was missed almost completely by the mainstream blog's that could have pushed it higher up. We might have missed a win here, as surely as the DCCC did.

However, DavidNYC disagreed with the diarist's assessment:

I would like to see someone with more experience take on Knollenberg, who has been in the House for over a decade. Beating an incumbent in a non-wave year is almost impossible - you need to have as strong a candidate as possible.

Also, Skinner raised only $400K, which strikes me as quite weak. By way of comparison, Eric Massa and Tim Walz, both first-time candidates without prior political experience, raised $1.4M and $1.2M respectively. And Massa's district is quite poor. They are sort of my benchmark.

If you can't raise somewhere in the realm of that kind of money in a strong Dem year, what were you doing? And I should note that MI-09 is a 50-50 district, while both MN-01 and especially NY-29 have a notable GOP tilt. NY-29 went for Bush 56-42.

Joe Knollenberg already announced that he was running for re-election, so he's obviously worried about something.

Mark Maynard: Sacrificing for our kids

Not really politics related, but a good read nonetheless.

TCM: Help WJR become the Great Voice of the entire Great Lake State again

Fantastic post on the lack of balance at WJR, especially considering its target audience. Make sure to read the comments too.

Dave Dempsey: Fresh Water: Protect the Public Trust

Dave discusses the "small container loophole" in terms of future water diversions from the Great Lakes. In his essay, he touches on a very important point: we all collectively own the Great Lakes, which are held in trust to us by our state governments.

WK: Michigan Legislature officially adjourns for the year

WK comments on the Legislature's last day of session. Its pretty funny.

The Free Press got quotes from Dingell and Knollenberg on Iraq, based on President Ford's statements about the Iraq war and warantless wiretapping.

U.S. Rep. John Dingell of Dearborn said former President Gerald Ford's remarks that he would not have ordered the United States into war against Iraq, based on the evidence presented, fit with Ford's character.

"Jerry Ford was a very measured, deliberate and responsible fellow," Dingell, a Democrat, said Thursday of the Republican from Grand Rapids.

"I think that kind of thought and thinking was very characteristic of Jerry. Especially after going through the crisis in Vietnam, I'm not surprised that he had these feelings."

Dingell also said: "And I'm in full agreement with his assessment."

Republican Congressman Joe Knollenberg of Bloomfield Township said in a statement: "Like many Americans, President Ford was clearly upset by the war in Iraq. Mistakes have been made, and the status quo is no longer acceptable."

Efforts to gather reaction from other Michigan members of Congress were unsuccessful.