2008 Republican primary

I'm studying for mad crazy finals right now, but I wanted to quickly pass this along.

A new Strategic Vision poll of Michigan was released today, surveying the Presidential Primary field and some approval ratings. This is the first one we've had in almost a month.

Remember, this is a Republican firm. Still, some key findings:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 25%
Disapprove 66%
Undecided 9%

5. Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the six months?
Yes 49%
No 41%
Undecided 10%

7. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jennifer Granholm's job performance?
Approve 44%
Disapprove 41%
Undecided 15%

8. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl Levin's job performance?
Approve 50%
Disapprove 33%
Undecided 17%

9. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Debbie Stabenow's job performance?
Approve 45%
Disapprove 34%
Undecided 21%

10. For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)
Rudy Giuliani 26%
John McCain 22%
Mitt Romney 10%
Fred Thompson 9%
Newt Gingrich 4%
Sam Brownback 3%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Tommy Thompson 1%
Mike Huckabee 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Ron Paul 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Jim Gilmore 1%
Undecided 18%

12. For the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Democrats Only)
Hillary Clinton 29%
Barack Obama 24%
John Edwards 22%
Joseph Biden 3%
Bill Richardson 3%
Christopher Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 17%

Sample size, survey dates, etc.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Michigan, aged 18+, and conducted April 13-15, 2007. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

I wish I could comment on all of this, but I simply don't have the time. I might do a follow-up analysis post in a few days.

I'll also update the Michigan poll data section when I get a chance.

According to the American Research Group, Clinton and McCain lead in Michigan:

I will add both the ARG poll and the last one to the "Poll Data" page shortly.

See the Michigan poll data section for every statewide poll of Michigan voters on elections since November 2006.

It wasn't an IMP poll, it was a MIRS/Rossman Group/Denno-Noor Poll.

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton was the choice of 32 percent of those Democrats surveyed, finishing double digits higher than her nearest competitor, former Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards (21 percent), and 12 points higher than Illinois U.S. Senator Barack Obama (20 percent). The remaining Democrat candidates were all in single digits — former Vice President Al Gore at 6 percent, Delaware U.S. Senator Joseph Biden at 2 percent, Connecticut U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd at 1 percent and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson at 1 percent.

Republicans:

On the Republican side of the aisle, a three-way race is also shaping up, with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani enjoying an early eleven point lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the son of former Michigan Governor George Romney (17 percent), and a twelve point lead over Arizona U.S. Senator John McCain (16 percent). Trailing further behind these candidates were former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at 10 percent, Vice President Dick Cheney at 6 percent, Kansas U.S. Senator Sam Brownback at 3 percent and Nebraska U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel at 2 percent. As with the Democrat primary voters, 17% of Republicans were undecided.

Methodology:

Methodology: This survey was part of the inaugural Rossman Group/MIRS/Denno-Noor Quarterly Survey of the Michigan electorate. 600 respondents were surveyed between February 21 and February 23, and the participation was stratified based on census data and past voter behavior. A screen was employed to include only those participants who said they intended on voting, either at the polls or by absentee ballot, in the November 2008 Election. The margin of error is plus/minus 4 percent.

I should also add that polling for undeclared candidates like Al Gore and Dick Cheney is absolutely moronic, and makes it impossible to compare to polls that don't include them as choices. We get few statewide (Michigan) polls as it is.

Also, did they survey likely primary voters? It looks like they surveyed likely November voters instead, which tells us nothing about what turnout would be like in a primary.

Apparently there was a recent "Inside Michigan Politics" poll of 2008 presidential contenders. Does anyone know what the results of that were? If you do, feel free to drop me a line. Thanks!

Interesting.

The Democrats notified us that they are planning on doing a caucus Feb. 9th and challenge any other state that may want to move their primary early and challenge those willing to break the DNC rules.

I spoke with Democrat Party Chair Mark Brewer and we agreed to continue working on trying to work out a “semi-open” primary that we would shoot for holding Feb. 5th.

However, given the Democrats position, we will have to prepare to move on our own if necessary.  I have talked to representatives of several presidential campaigns and there appears to be a consensus to continue to plan on holding our process February 5th.

If we can work something out with the Democrats, great.  If not, we will start preparing to run our own “party primary” or “caucus” statewide.  I think given our presidential task force’s work and what everyone has said over the last week, we are going to explore the “party primary” process first. 

I will be meeting with the presidential campaigns over the next two weeks to discuss options and then have some options ready to discuss at our next state committee meeting in April.  We’ll keep everyone inform as we move ahead.

Yesterday, I asked about how the Presidential caucuses worked in Michigan.  The Detroit Free Press has the answer:

Michigan's Republican and Democratic leaders are negotiating a Feb. 5 combined, semi-closed primary, rather than having separate votes as they have in the past. A semi-closed primary would allow voters to choose to vote Democratic or Republican at their regular precincts. The state would pay the costs of such a primary.

Each party would have access to the names of voters in its primary but not who they voted for; there would be no public record showing which party's primary a voter selected.

Although I would prefer IRV, this sounds democratic enough.

Eye on 08 has some interesting tidbits on the proxy fights between John McCain and Mitt Romney at the Michigan Republican Party convention.  For more context, an Associated Press article from a couple days ago put together a great roundup of what Republican candidates for President were doing in Michigan.

Mitt Romney isn't the only GOP Presidential candidate trying to court Michigan voters.  According to Michigan for McCain, John McCain is going to be hanging out at the Michigan Republican Party Convention.

The Exploratory Committee "National Co-Chairman and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty will be addressing the Michigan Republican State Convention on behalf of the Arizona Senator. Pawlenty will be addressing the convention on Saturday, February 10th."

This is huge news for Team McCain as they will be able to expose a huge part of the McCain organization to thousands of members of the Michigan GOP at this weekends State Convention.

The funny part is that this will be happening only three days before Romney makes his big announcement in Michigan.

Does anyone know of any Democratic candidates for President who will be appearing at the Michigan Democratic Party convention?

According to the AP, Mitt Romney is setting up to make a formal announcement in Michigan (his home state).

Republican Mitt Romney will formally announce his candidacy for president next week in Michigan, his native state and an important early test for the GOP nomination, campaign aides said Tuesday.

...

In Dearborn, Mich., Romney will hold what amounts to a made-for-TV coming out event at the Henry Ford Museum in the state where he was born. He has a base of support in the battleground state and deep roots. His father, George Romney, was governor in the 1960s, and served as chief executive of the American Motors Corp. The elder Romney made an unsuccessful bid for the 1968 Republican presidential nomination.

He's currently a distant fourth here at the moment, but polling at this stage of the game doesn't mean much.  Based on this background information, it'll be interesting to see what he has to say regarding our failing economy and auto industry.

Mitt Romney will be speaking to the Detroit Economic Club this Wednesday.

Governor Mitt Romney will deliver a major address to the Detroit Economic Club on his vision to win the global economic challenge facing the United States. This is the first major economic speech delivered by Governor Romney since declaring his candidacy for President of the United States.

To my knowledge, this is one of the first times that a 2008 Presidential contender is visiting Michigan after announcing.

UPDATE (2/7):  Hotline has quotes.

Especially given the new primary schedule, Michigan is going to be critical to the success of both John McCain and Mitt Romney in attempting to secure the Republican nomination for President in 2008. We already saw that McCain's supporters in Michigan were ambitious enough to try and oust Michigan Republican Party chair Saul Anuzis before the 2006 election. With any luck, that kind of infighting will continue to occur through 2007 and 2008.

Typically, we are the targets of the Republican smear machine. With the upcoming 2008 Republican primary, various conservative figures are setting their sights each other instead of us. For example, Pat Robertson's CBN (take a very large grain of salt) reports that Mitt Romney's support in Michigan may be eroding due to inconsistencies in his positions on issues such as abortion and gay marriage.

...there are at least four Republican Representatives from the Michigan State House that are seriously rethinking their support of Romney for President.

These are members of Romney's steering committee in Michigan who are now having reservations about recent revelations about Romney's past comments in regards to marriage, abortion and the Boy Scouts. There's a good chance that they could jump ship. I know that one of them wrote to Romney's office demanding specific answers to certain questions.

(snip)

What I'm being told from a well placed source on the ground is that the representatives who may leave Romney are really questioning the legitimacy of his conservative credentials. Romney has always said he has evolved on these issues over the years, but these folks in Michigan think it's okay to evolve, but some of this seems to be major flip flop material, especially on the life issue where they point out how he's gone from pro-choice in 1994, to pro-life in 2000, to pro-choice in 2002 and now back to pro-life.

Romney's office will dispute this, but what they can't dispute is a potential unraveling among their steering committee in Michigan.

Given George Romney's reputation and Mitt Romney's history as a candidate in Massachusetts, Romney appears to be a moderate. We like our moderates in Michigan, and Romney needs to keep that appearance to be successful in the general election here. However, he appears to be trying to cater to a conservative base so he can win the primary.

Romney's behavior is insincere and grossly underestimates the intelligence of Michigan voters. Should he make it to the general election, Michiganders should strongly consider how Romney has changed his behavior to suit his political need.

The Swing State Project took a peek at all of the states where the vote difference between Kerry and Bush was under 10%. In 2004, the vote difference in Michigan was 3.42%, which makes it a "swing state" and a necessary component needed for victory in the 2008 presidential election.

Our own lpackard weighed in on the SSP thread, commenting on the viability of the Republican candidates in Michigan:

I hope this is not true, but either McCain or Romney might be able to take a decent shot at Michigan. McCain is popular here - he won the primary back in the '00 cycle. And Romney is the son of former Governor Romney, a well-regarded moderate Republican. Although maybe it's ancient enough history that his name is no longer good.

McCain actually wants to escalate the war in Iraq, and Romney's recent positioning puts him at odds with the philosophical approach that his father used in his governance here. For us, it is simply a matter of demonstrating that neither McCain nor Romney is the right candidate for Michigan.

According to the Detroit Free Press, John McCain has selected Mike Cox to manage his Michigan operations in 2008:

Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox was named Thursday to head U.S. Sen. John McCain's presidential exploratory committee in the state and its law enforcement committee nationally.

Cox, re-elected to a second four-year term in November, becomes the highest profile Michigan Republican to join the McCain team to date.

Does this mean that Mike Cox also supports sending more Michigan soldiers to Iraq?  It wouldn't be the only thing they have in common.

UPDATE (1:22 PM):  Images courtesy of Pohlitics.

The Boston Globe reports that Michigan is among the states that wants to move its Presidential primary to an earlier date. The aim of this is to reduce the impact of New Hampshire and increase their own influence.

In Michigan, meanwhile, Republicans are working with Democrats to push a plan that would give them the option of moving their presidential caucus up one week, from Feb. 9 to Feb. 2.

Though moving the caucus date would violate DNC rules, it could get signed into law during the Legislature's lame-duck session next month, said Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis. "There is widespread agreement from both sides that we will do this. The question is just when we will get it done," Anuzis said.

Prior to the 2006 election, Mark Brewer also spent a lot of energy trying to move Michigan's 2008 primary date.

The article speculates that the date change would benefit Romney over some of the other possible Republican candidates.

An early vote in Michigan could boost the presidential bid of Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, a Republican whose father served as governor of Michigan. A Romney spokesman did not return a call seeking comment.

I'm not entirely sure if that is actually the case. Based on the only information that we have available to us, McCain appears to be the current frontrunner in Michigan. It is tough to say who would benefit on the Democratic side, too.

Regardless of the political implications, this issue ought to be about what is best for the democratic process in our country. Moving the primaries of states like Michigan and Florida up could allow a more representative sample of party members to choose their nominee, but they would also dramatically increase the costs of the early campaign period.

Personally, I am conflicted on the best way to reform our primary process. Holding the primary on a single election day would be the most representative, but would also increase the cost of running a campaign very dramatically. On the other hand, holding the first primary in one or two small states isn't at all representative of the general sentiment among party members.

"Republican in-fighting on the eve of a critical election? Gee, what a pity." - Zack

I saw Skubick's column in the Lansing State Journal about MI Republican infighting the morning it came out, but was afraid to say anything about it in case I accidentally complimented Saul.

The papers haven't been holding the MI GOP accountable for their slanderous attacks, so I'm glad to see that there are consequences for being that viciously negative. However, this appears to have more to do with the 2008 presidential election than Saul's effectiveness as the MRP chair.

Saul is good at what he does -- he consistently gets under my skin, which means that he must be doing his job well. He's attention-grabbing, persuasive, keeps his message consistent, and attacks relentlessly. Despite a bad year for Republicans nationally, he keeps the volunteers energized and his voter ID work has made national news multiple times.

According to this post from last week, these are some of Saul's accomplishments as MRP chair:

• Opened 27 Victory Centers, 11 more than in 2004, that have increased overall volunteer achievement above even the heights reached in 2004

• Placed Victory Centers specifically in key state House and state Senate districts in order to provide extra grassroots support to the effort to maintain majority in both chambers

• Coordinated with all Republican candidates to use the Victory Centers as points to distribute their literature and yard signs

• Hired and deployed a field staff of more than 60 people to work directly with local party groups and grassroots activists in more places across Michigan

• Made more than 2,000,000 volunteer phone calls - more than any other state in the country!

• Invested in enhancements to the voter file, which is accessible to all local party groups and candidates, that enable all of us to more effectively reach the voters we need to reach, deliver the messages that will impact each particular voter, and make far better use of our combined financial resources as a result

• Added 1,843,456 new pieces of invaluable hard-ID data about individual voters to the voter file, making the file an even better tool for local parties and candidates - far more than was added during the entire 2004 election-cycle

• Sent absentee voter applications to more than 2 million likely Republican voters

• Sent an additional Absentee-GOTV mail piece to more than 2 million likely Republican voters

• Made more than 500,000 calls by volunteers to potential absentee voters

• Recruited and energized 903 coalition leaders in key counties throughout Michigan

• Knocked on 75,587 doors in targeted areas all across the state

I'm not saying that our side is incompetent (our Coordinated Campaign is pretty impressive), but there are lessons we can learn from them in terms of developing our methodology and infrastructure. Saul's internet outreach is fantastic too... he runs one of the best Michigan blogs for political information, and is a great centralized location for learning about the Republican message. He personally does a lot to promote the MI Republican blogs as well.

Clearly, this has nothing to do with his competence or even conduct. This has everything to do with Michigan's position as a battleground state in the 2008 Presidential elections.

As I mentioned before, McCain is very popular in Michigan and considered the 2008 frontrunner here. If Anuzis is percieved to be too close to Romney, that is a problem for a lot of influential Republicans who support McCain over Romney. This is because Anuzis would be the "moderator" of the 2008 Republican primary here, and Michigan is such a critical state.

McCain and Romney have both been showering Michigan with attention, whether it be through personal appearances, ad appearances, or money:

And in Michigan, a key swing state, the RGA contributed $1 million even though its candidate, Dick DeVos, has an Amway fortune and has already thrown $16 million of his own into his race.

Romney was in Michigan again on Friday, stumping on behalf of DeVos.

While there has been media speculation Romney would base a presidential campaign out of Michigan, his birth state, his closest aides say that is untrue.

Anyway, if they want to try and oust someone as competent as Anuzis before the election, that can only be good for us.