2008 Democratic primary

I'm studying for mad crazy finals right now, but I wanted to quickly pass this along.

A new Strategic Vision poll of Michigan was released today, surveying the Presidential Primary field and some approval ratings. This is the first one we've had in almost a month.

Remember, this is a Republican firm. Still, some key findings:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 25%
Disapprove 66%
Undecided 9%

5. Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the six months?
Yes 49%
No 41%
Undecided 10%

7. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jennifer Granholm's job performance?
Approve 44%
Disapprove 41%
Undecided 15%

8. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl Levin's job performance?
Approve 50%
Disapprove 33%
Undecided 17%

9. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Debbie Stabenow's job performance?
Approve 45%
Disapprove 34%
Undecided 21%

10. For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)
Rudy Giuliani 26%
John McCain 22%
Mitt Romney 10%
Fred Thompson 9%
Newt Gingrich 4%
Sam Brownback 3%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Tommy Thompson 1%
Mike Huckabee 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Ron Paul 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Jim Gilmore 1%
Undecided 18%

12. For the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Democrats Only)
Hillary Clinton 29%
Barack Obama 24%
John Edwards 22%
Joseph Biden 3%
Bill Richardson 3%
Christopher Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 17%

Sample size, survey dates, etc.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Michigan, aged 18+, and conducted April 13-15, 2007. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

I wish I could comment on all of this, but I simply don't have the time. I might do a follow-up analysis post in a few days.

I'll also update the Michigan poll data section when I get a chance.

According to the American Research Group, Clinton and McCain lead in Michigan:

I will add both the ARG poll and the last one to the "Poll Data" page shortly.

See the Michigan poll data section for every statewide poll of Michigan voters on elections since November 2006.

It wasn't an IMP poll, it was a MIRS/Rossman Group/Denno-Noor Poll.

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton was the choice of 32 percent of those Democrats surveyed, finishing double digits higher than her nearest competitor, former Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards (21 percent), and 12 points higher than Illinois U.S. Senator Barack Obama (20 percent). The remaining Democrat candidates were all in single digits — former Vice President Al Gore at 6 percent, Delaware U.S. Senator Joseph Biden at 2 percent, Connecticut U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd at 1 percent and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson at 1 percent.

Republicans:

On the Republican side of the aisle, a three-way race is also shaping up, with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani enjoying an early eleven point lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the son of former Michigan Governor George Romney (17 percent), and a twelve point lead over Arizona U.S. Senator John McCain (16 percent). Trailing further behind these candidates were former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at 10 percent, Vice President Dick Cheney at 6 percent, Kansas U.S. Senator Sam Brownback at 3 percent and Nebraska U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel at 2 percent. As with the Democrat primary voters, 17% of Republicans were undecided.

Methodology:

Methodology: This survey was part of the inaugural Rossman Group/MIRS/Denno-Noor Quarterly Survey of the Michigan electorate. 600 respondents were surveyed between February 21 and February 23, and the participation was stratified based on census data and past voter behavior. A screen was employed to include only those participants who said they intended on voting, either at the polls or by absentee ballot, in the November 2008 Election. The margin of error is plus/minus 4 percent.

I should also add that polling for undeclared candidates like Al Gore and Dick Cheney is absolutely moronic, and makes it impossible to compare to polls that don't include them as choices. We get few statewide (Michigan) polls as it is.

Also, did they survey likely primary voters? It looks like they surveyed likely November voters instead, which tells us nothing about what turnout would be like in a primary.

Apparently there was a recent "Inside Michigan Politics" poll of 2008 presidential contenders. Does anyone know what the results of that were? If you do, feel free to drop me a line. Thanks!

The MDP posted some additional information on the 2008 Michigan Democratic Presidential Nominating Process:

Date of Michigan Democratic Caucus
Saturday, February 9, 2008 unless another state violates DNC scheduling rules in which case Michigan will hold its Caucus earlier, possibly on or before the date of the offending state.

Voting in the Michigan Democratic Caucus
3 methods of voting will be proposed:

* Internet voting: 30-day application period prior to caucus date; one week voting period prior to caucus date.
* Voting by mail: 30-day application period prior to caucus date; 30-day voting period prior to caucus date.
* Voting at caucus sites: grouped by zip code; person can vote at any site in their county.

Yesterday, I asked about how the Presidential caucuses worked in Michigan.  The Detroit Free Press has the answer:

Michigan's Republican and Democratic leaders are negotiating a Feb. 5 combined, semi-closed primary, rather than having separate votes as they have in the past. A semi-closed primary would allow voters to choose to vote Democratic or Republican at their regular precincts. The state would pay the costs of such a primary.

Each party would have access to the names of voters in its primary but not who they voted for; there would be no public record showing which party's primary a voter selected.

Although I would prefer IRV, this sounds democratic enough.

Hooray for a front-loaded primary season.  The MDP issued a statement about reports that its Presidential Caucus would be held on February 9th.

“I have consulted with Michigan Democratic leaders and the consensus is that the MDP will hold its Caucus on Saturday, February 9, 2008 provided all other states abide by the DNC scheduling rules,” Brewer said. “There is also a consensus among our leaders that if any state schedules its caucus or primary in violation of the DNC’s rules, Michigan will move its Caucus to an earlier date. That earlier date may be on or before the date of the offending state’s caucus or primary.”

The caucus system certainly has its advantages, but it also seems kind of undemocratic to me.  Does anyone know exactly how the caucus system works in Michigan?

Just a heads up, since I know how everyone loooooves to talk about Presidential electoral politics:

According to the Detroit Free Press, Michigan Democrats overwhelmingly prefer Hillary Clinton.

Almost a year before the state's parties hold primaries or caucuses, Clinton is the clear choice of Michigan Democrats with a nearly 30-point lead over her nearest rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll conducted last week shows. The New York senator and former first lady got strong support crossing racial lines, income levels, geographical boundaries and age.

The Free Press website has full breakdowns of the head-to-head matchups and primary vote simulation.

At this point, I think that these results reflect on name recognition more than anything else.  If the pollsters didn't "push" people toward choosing a particular candidate, most people would be undecideds.  In other words, support for primary candidates is still "soft" at this point.  To candidates, the real value of polling this early is in defining the media narrative and fundraising.

The head-to-head polls were conducted by Selzer and Company.  They sampled 675 voters from Jan 28 to 31, and claim a margin of error of 3.8 percent.  In their simulation of a Democratic primary vote, they sampled 273 voters from Jan 28 to 31, and claim a margin of error of 5.9 percent.

Be sure to check out Laura's first thread on Presidential Primary Polling, too.

The Boston Globe reports that Michigan is among the states that wants to move its Presidential primary to an earlier date. The aim of this is to reduce the impact of New Hampshire and increase their own influence.

In Michigan, meanwhile, Republicans are working with Democrats to push a plan that would give them the option of moving their presidential caucus up one week, from Feb. 9 to Feb. 2.

Though moving the caucus date would violate DNC rules, it could get signed into law during the Legislature's lame-duck session next month, said Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis. "There is widespread agreement from both sides that we will do this. The question is just when we will get it done," Anuzis said.

Prior to the 2006 election, Mark Brewer also spent a lot of energy trying to move Michigan's 2008 primary date.

The article speculates that the date change would benefit Romney over some of the other possible Republican candidates.

An early vote in Michigan could boost the presidential bid of Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, a Republican whose father served as governor of Michigan. A Romney spokesman did not return a call seeking comment.

I'm not entirely sure if that is actually the case. Based on the only information that we have available to us, McCain appears to be the current frontrunner in Michigan. It is tough to say who would benefit on the Democratic side, too.

Regardless of the political implications, this issue ought to be about what is best for the democratic process in our country. Moving the primaries of states like Michigan and Florida up could allow a more representative sample of party members to choose their nominee, but they would also dramatically increase the costs of the early campaign period.

Personally, I am conflicted on the best way to reform our primary process. Holding the primary on a single election day would be the most representative, but would also increase the cost of running a campaign very dramatically. On the other hand, holding the first primary in one or two small states isn't at all representative of the general sentiment among party members.