nirmalm.com - Michigan Governor Election

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nirmalm.com - Michigan Governor Election http://www.nirmalm.com/taxonomy/term/6/0 en Hitler Ad Donors Update http://www.nirmalm.com/hitler_ad_update_385 Remember the ad that compared Governor Granholm to Hitler? Remember how information was released yesterday that <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/voice_vote_donors_finally_identified_380">tied prominent Republican donors</A> to the ads? Well, those donors say they are "angered" about the ads and had <A HREF="http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070315/NEWS05/703150348/1001/rss01">nothing to do with it</A>. <blockquote>Peter Cummings and John Rakolta said Wednesday that they were appalled after learning how their money and their spouses' money had been spent. They said that Detroit political consultant Adolph Mongo, who solicited their contributions, had told them it would be used to increase voter turnout in Detroit.</blockquote> I find that a very hard pill to swallow. Just based on previous experience and cynicism about the political process, I am almost positive they knew exactly what that money was going to be used for. Come on, "voter turnout in Detroit"? For a Republican in Michigan, that's not the most efficient use of resources during an election season. Besides, if they knew there was such a fuss about where Mongo got the money, wouldn't they have came clean during the election? Why did Mongo go to such lengths to hide where the money came from? Also, check out this gem from Mongo's stepdaughter, who ran the group: <blockquote>"People knew what our message was, and they chose to support it," Harbin said.</blockquote> My bullshit meter is screaming wildly. http://www.nirmalm.com/hitler_ad_update_385#comments Michigan Governor Election Thu, 15 Mar 2007 09:22:48 -0400 Nirmal 385 at http://www.nirmalm.com "Voice the Vote" Donors Finally Identified http://www.nirmalm.com/voice_vote_donors_finally_identified_380 It's only eight months late.  Wizardkitten has the <a href="http://wizardkitten.blogspot.com/2007/03/republican-donors-paid-for-ad-that.html">breakdown</a>. UPDATE:  See related Michlib discussion <a href="http://www.michiganliberal.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=8402">here</a>. http://www.nirmalm.com/voice_vote_donors_finally_identified_380#comments Michigan Governor Election Wed, 14 Mar 2007 17:54:27 -0400 Nirmal 380 at http://www.nirmalm.com December 13 Tim Skubick Interview http://www.nirmalm.com/december_13_tim_skubick_interview_163 Just a heads up: Scott Pohl (huh? that name sounds familiar :-P) <A HREF="http://red-cedar.wkar.msu.edu:8080/ramgen/Archive/features/061213_skubick.rm">interviewed Tim Skubick</A> about "See Dick and Jen Run" for WKAR. UPDATE: Matt <A HREF="http://www.michiganliberal.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=7700">did an interview</A> with him as well this past Sunday. http://www.nirmalm.com/december_13_tim_skubick_interview_163#comments Michigan Governor Election Wed, 13 Dec 2006 08:57:30 -0500 Nirmal 163 at http://www.nirmalm.com DeVos may run again http://www.nirmalm.com/devos_may_run_again_151 ...or <A HREF="http://www.mlive.com/news/grpress/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1165501070167160.xml&coll=6">he might not</A>. <blockquote> In one of his first public appearances since losing the race for governor, Republican Dick DeVos said Wednesday he intends to remain active in public affairs, but declined to say whether he would run for political office again. "We're not commenting on that," he said after meeting with Kent County Republicans, but he added: "I'm not ruling anything in or out." (emphasis added)</blockquote> The money to fund such an effort will be there, but I expect that the Amway baggage will stay with him as well. It is more likely that he'll keep up with his advocacy for vouchers and contributions to groups like the mackinac center and the AFA "behind the scenes." http://www.nirmalm.com/devos_may_run_again_151#comments Michigan Governor Election Fri, 08 Dec 2006 09:36:41 -0500 Nirmal 151 at http://www.nirmalm.com MI-Gov Cost a LOT of Money http://www.nirmalm.com/mi_gov_cost_a_lot_of_money_149 According to the Michigan Campaign Finance Network, Jennifer Granholm and Dick DeVos spent a total of <A HREF="http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061207/UPDATE/612070468">more than $56 million</A> on this past election cycle. This doesn't include at least $15 million spent by the state parties and outside interests. Each vote for Dick DeVos cost $26 on average. Seems a little excessive to me. http://www.nirmalm.com/mi_gov_cost_a_lot_of_money_149#comments Michigan Governor Election Thu, 07 Dec 2006 23:57:28 -0500 Nirmal 149 at http://www.nirmalm.com Excerpts from "See Dick and Jen Run" http://www.nirmalm.com/excerpts_from_see_dick_and_jen_run_145 The News-Herald has <A HREF="http://www.thenewsherald.com/stories/120606/loc_20061206001.shtml">posted excerpts</A> from Tim Skubick's book on the 2006 gubernatorial race in Michigan. Based on what I've read, his retelling suffers from a couple big problems: the writing is poor, and he is severely biased in favor of DeVos (at least in these chapters). This isn't opinion or analysis, but rather a story that is being told. Skubick is out of his usual element, and it shows in the writing. Skubick's retelling is also very biased. Again, I don't think that he is biased in favor of Democrats or Republicans. However, DeVos' frequent quotes set the context of the entire story. DeVos gets a chance to explain and reflect upon his actions, but we don't see Granholm get a chance to share her perspective. Its told entirely from the viewpoint of DeVos, which isn't fair to Granholm and is a reflection of the fact that Skubick was closer to DeVos' side than he was to Granholm's. Here's an example: <blockquote>And then she masterfully outlined for the audience what that meant to them. She reported that the GOP wanted to increase state aid to the cities by 2 percent, but they left Detroit out. (She declines to tell them that she never introduced a revenue- sharing increase, either.) She recalled that they wanted to allow Grand Rapids to create a new mass transit authority, but left Detroit out. And for a dab of frosting on the cake, she said the GOP was increasing funding for every university — except Wayne State, which was in Detroit. (emphasis added)</blockquote> That is absurd. We have no idea of why Granholm may not have decided to introduce a revenue-sharing increase, or what the impact on state government would be. Maybe she didn't because she knew that there wouldn't be support for it? Especially since Skubick doesn't substantiate that statement or provide any context, it seems like a cheap shot at the Governor. It appears that DeVos gets his message across unchallenged and unfiltered, but Skubick can say anything he wants about Granholm and she doesn't have an opportunity to defend herself. Great "journalism." Despite how poor the writing is, I've resigned myself to the fact that I'm going to read it anyway. Its going to have neat little bits of information that we won't hear about from anyone else. http://www.nirmalm.com/excerpts_from_see_dick_and_jen_run_145#comments Michigan Governor Election Tim Skubick Tue, 05 Dec 2006 19:01:11 -0500 Nirmal 145 at http://www.nirmalm.com Random Election Comments http://www.nirmalm.com/random_election_comments_110 I'm happy with the way that the graphs of trends reflected popular sentiment, and plan on using them again the next election cycle. I think they did a pretty good job of showing how things were moving during any given period of time. They aren't always going to indicate what the election results might be like (due to factors like turnout, survey errors, etc.) but they are useful for stuff like discarding unreliable numbers and tracking shifts in opinion. Speaking of bad numbers, were those Mitchell results garbage or what? Like we had mentioned before, the entire narrative about the gap "narrowing" near the end was absolutely false. The trends showed the gap widening, and that's what happened. This is why it is difficult to trust partisan pollsters -- they spin the results based on what they think will motivate the troops. We saw the MDP do this with the poll showing Amos Williams ahead, as well as pretty much everything that came out of Mitchell. One of the things I saw emphasized on election day in the news were problems with electronic voting, especially when there is no paper trail involved. Hopefully, coverage of all of the problems and inconsistencies involving this kind of voting will lead to improvements in the electoral process. I'd like to see some other "process" improvements as well, such as more competitive house districts in Michigan, stronger robocall disclosure laws, better financial disclosure requirements (think DeVos disclosure problems), and campaign finance improvements. There were other voting problems in Michigan that need to be addressed as well. For example, precincts in Pontiac ran out of ballots for several hours in the night, which caused many people to not be able to vote. Obviously, the SBT replacement is a major issue that needs to be dealt with. Hopefully, it will be easier to go through with that and other initiatives like Granholm's health care plan and jobs plan with the change in power in the House. DeVos would have dismantled those, so I'm glad that he wasn't re-elected. I think the blogs and "netroots" played a huge impact on the outcome of these elections. At the state level, Michigan Liberal had a major impact on the narrative of several races, most notably MI-Gov. At the national level, Webb and Tester are "netroots" candidates who were backed by the blogs long before anyone else thought that they even had a chance. Now, they are credited as the reasons that Democrats won the Senate. Poor Sharon Renier. At least she helped make that race competitive, and caused Republicans to divert valuable time and resources to that district instead of in other races. We need to start thinking about our candidates for statewide races in 2008 and 2010. They've got Cox and Land, and we don't have anyone of comparable stature yet. Now that we've taken back the national house, members of our Michigan Congressional Delegation have been attracting attention. Its a shame that Republicans have already started to <A HREF="http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/2006/11/call-it-treason.html">slander John Conyers</A>. Good to know that John Dingell is going to be one of the <A HREF="http://news.com.com/What+the+Democrats+win+means+for+tech/2100-1028_3-6133833.html">key players</A> in the debate about net neutrality: <blockquote>"Clearly, we're going to have to address the question of network neutrality," Rep. John Dingell, a Michigan Democrat, told reporters on Wednesday. Dingell, who has served in the House for more than 50 of his 80 years, is set to be the next chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which writes telecommunications laws. Dingell didn't elaborate. But he's previously gone on the record as a staunch supporter of extensive regulations that would prohibit network operators from charging content providers extra for premium placement or faster delivery, dubbing it "private taxation of the Internet." (Network operators say they may need to do this to recoup their vast investments in new broadband infrastructure.)</blockquote> The unfortunate reality of our political system is that political change occurs through our two political parties. Although Greens may be well intentioned, by taking money from Republicans to "spoil" competitive races, they work against many of the principles they support. That energy could be focused more productively on attempts to change the Democratic Party itself. This was <A HREF="http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061110/NEWS05/611100375">kind of frustrating</A>: <blockquote>Also in the Senate races, the presence of Green Party candidates hurt Democrats Andy Levin of Bloomfield Township and Carl Williams of Saginaw, who lost by 776 and 520 votes, respectively, said Tom Lenard, Senate Democratic spokesman. Green candidates there drew quadruple those losing margins.</blockquote> http://www.nirmalm.com/random_election_comments_110#comments Michigan Governor Election Michigan public opinion Sat, 11 Nov 2006 19:45:14 -0500 Nirmal 110 at http://www.nirmalm.com Why Did DeVos Lose? http://www.nirmalm.com/why_did_devos_lose_109 I think Kathy Barks Hoffman and Chris Christoff <A HREF="http://wkar.org/offtherecord/program.php?num=2007-19">get it right</A> (not having specifics and Amway). http://www.nirmalm.com/why_did_devos_lose_109#comments Michigan Governor Election Fri, 10 Nov 2006 16:02:18 -0500 Nirmal 109 at http://www.nirmalm.com Final Thoughts http://www.nirmalm.com/final_thoughts_103 I <A HREF="http://www.michiganliberal.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=7455">originally posted</A> this over at Michlib: Well, this is it. We have all put in a lot of hard work into this upcoming election over the past many months.  With things trending in our favor, that work appears to be paying off.  People understand that we cannot move our state forward under the current status quo, and that electing Democrats will help to bring the change that we need.  They understand that the future of our state is in our hands, and not those of fancy lobbyists and narrow-minded special interests.  Most importantly, they understand that we have some real choices in these races, and that our choices tomorrow will determine the direction of our state for many years to come. Despite all of this, we must keep working to close the deal.  We cannot make the mistake of being complacent these next 24 hours.  It would be awful if we nearly had these races, but lost them in the last moments because we didn't work hard enough.  It is our duty to not only vote, but to turn out our supporters so that we can ensure that our values are represented in our government.  When it comes to Prop. 2, Bouchard, our state legislature, and the Amway Guy, nothing less than our very way of life is at stake.  Michigan is worth fighting for, so let's <A HREF="http://www.michigandems.com/fieldoffices.html">get out there</A> and fight! That brings us to election day.  Hopefully, the results will be good to us.  Maybe they won't be.  Regardless of what happens tomorrow, our work continues on November 8th.  We are a long-term movement and must stay organized if we want to outlast this election cycle and become a coherent political force in Michigan politics.  While tomorrow's election is very significant in itself, what happens now will also set the stage for many battles to come.  We are going to remain a part of Michigan's political process no matter what the outcome, and I look forward to our discussion about where we go from here after the election. Finally, thank you all for making the past months such a meaningful experience.  This is hands down the best community on the 'net, and I know that many of us would have stopped blogging a long time ago if it weren't for the advice and encouragement of this incredible community.  I don't want to start listing names because I would inevitably leave someone out by accident, but there are a couple people that I would like to mention:  Matt and Laura. Matt has sacrificed a lot to keep this website going, and it shows -- Michlib is the best website for Michigan politics, period.  I know I don't just speak for myself when I say that his work inspires us to give blogging our 100%.  Although Laura is not as visible on the front page, she does an incredible amount of "behind-the-scenes" work to develop the Michigan "netroots" that deserves to be acknowledged.  If it weren't for her advice, e-mail updates, and logistical tips, I might not have ever made it off the ground. Anyway, that's enough babbling from me -- good luck with your races, and I'm sure we'll be talking and analyzing the results soon! http://www.nirmalm.com/final_thoughts_103#comments Michigan Attorney General Election Michigan Governor Election Michigan Senator Election Michigan State House Michigan State Senate Mon, 06 Nov 2006 20:56:17 -0500 Nirmal 103 at http://www.nirmalm.com Vote to Put Michigan First http://www.nirmalm.com/vote_to_put_michigan_first_102 <blockquote>Dear [Supporter], The race for Governor ends tomorrow when Michigan votes. I hope that I have earned your support and that you will encourage everyone you know to get to the polls and vote to keep Michigan moving forward. There are a number of very important differences between Dick DeVos and me. I have fought for you, for all Michigan citizens. My opponent has stood on the other side of my most significant battles. While I’ve fought to create jobs in Michigan and diversify our economy, Dick DeVos eliminated nearly 1,400 jobs in Michigan when he was CEO of Amway. While I fought George Bush’s outsourcing and unfair foreign trade policies, my opponent is one of George Bush’s biggest backers and has supported the unfair trade practices that have hurt us. I went to Asia to bring home 22 companies, 1,000 jobs and $200 million in investments. Dick DeVos went to Asia and invested $200 million and created thousands of jobs there. I strongly believe that a woman’s personal health care decisions should not be made by politicians. My opponent absolutely opposes a woman’s right to choose, even in the case of rape or incest. When I see a woman who has been raped, I see a victim. When my opponent sees that same woman, he sees a criminal. I support embryonic stem cell research, he opposes it. I support public education, he led the voucher movement that would hurt our public schools. I believe in health care for all. Dick DeVos’ health care plan is “get a job.” I will not gut public safety or open our Great Lakes up to drilling to pad the pockets of corporate executives. My opponent’s business tax scheme jeopardizes our police officers and prisons and puts corporate executives first. I am a Governor who works hard every day, for everyday people. My opponent, time and again, has made decisions to help himself and the fortunate few at Michigan’s expense. In the past four years, I’ve cut more out of state government than any Governor in state history. I’ve set in motion the most comprehensive and aggressive jobs plan in the nation. And I’ve protected and invested in education and health care and public safety for all Michigan citizens. We’ve made incredible progress, but there is a lot more still to be done. Tomorrow, Michigan votes. I’m depending on you to help me keep our plan, and our vision of Michigan’s future, alive. Forward this email to your friends and family and remind them to vote. Get on the phone and make sure that everyone knows what is at stake. You can make the difference in this election. Sincerely, Jennifer M. Granholm Governor http://www.nirmalm.com/vote_to_put_michigan_first_102#comments Michigan Governor Election Mon, 06 Nov 2006 11:34:10 -0500 Nirmal 102 at http://www.nirmalm.com 11.06.2006 Trends in MI-Gov http://www.nirmalm.com/11_06_2006_trends_in_mi_gov_101 <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/100?size=_original"><IMG SRC = "http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/files/images/11.06.2006migovtrends.preview.PNG" width=400></A> View <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/100">"preview" size</A>. View <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/100?size=_original">"full" size</A>. This includes the most recent Strategic Vision poll, as well as the most recent Survey USA. We're seeing a lot of instability. Also, the median date of when the most recent polls were conducted is Nov. 3rd, and the election is November 7th. Its tough to tell what is taking place between Nov. 3rd and the 7th. Despite that, things are looking very good right now. http://www.nirmalm.com/11_06_2006_trends_in_mi_gov_101#comments Michigan Governor Election Michigan public opinion Mon, 06 Nov 2006 11:22:44 -0500 Nirmal 101 at http://www.nirmalm.com New Strategic Vision - Granholm 52, DeVos 42 http://www.nirmalm.com/new_strategic_vision_granholm_52_devos_42_99 A new <A HREF="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/michigan_poll_110606.htm">Strategic Vision poll</A> was released showing Granholm up 52 to 42. Also, it has Stabenow up 50 to 44. Remember, Strategic Vision is a Republican firm. <blockquote>Results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Michigan, aged 18+, and conducted November 2-4, 2006. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.</blockquote> I promise, updated trends are coming shortly. http://www.nirmalm.com/new_strategic_vision_granholm_52_devos_42_99#comments Michigan Governor Election Michigan public opinion Michigan Senator Election Mon, 06 Nov 2006 10:46:56 -0500 Nirmal 99 at http://www.nirmalm.com New Survey USA (Granholm 51, DeVos 45) http://www.nirmalm.com/new_survey_usa_granholm_51_devos_45_98 The results of a <A HREF="http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=3ae2e73e-ae22-401f-bf26-fc7955bc9d4f">new Survey USA</A> poll were released today. The data was collected between 11/02/2006 and 11/04/2006, and the poll was sponsored by WDIO-TV Duluth, WDIV-TV Detroit, and WZZM-TV Grand Rapids. It shows Granholm up 51 to 45, Stabenow up 52 to 42, Cox leading by 16, and Land up by 20. I'll update with trends in a bit. http://www.nirmalm.com/new_survey_usa_granholm_51_devos_45_98#comments Michigan Attorney General Election Michigan Governor Election Michigan public opinion Michigan Senator Election Sun, 05 Nov 2006 19:16:57 -0500 Nirmal 98 at http://www.nirmalm.com New Polls! (and 11.05.2006 Trends in MI-Gov) http://www.nirmalm.com/new_polls_and_11_05_2006_trends_in_mi_gov_94 <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/93?size=_original"><IMG SRC = "http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/files/images/11.05.2006migovtrends.preview.PNG" width=400></A> View <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/93">"preview" size</A>. View <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/93?size=_original">"full" size</A>. New data points are based on the <A HREF="">most recent EPIC-MRA poll</A>, a <A HREF="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15547373/">new Mason-Dixon poll</A> released today (showing Granholm at 52%, DeVos at 38%), and a <A HREF="http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2006611050625">Free Press poll released today</A> showing Granholm with a 54% to 41% lead. They all had the same median survey date, so its interesting to see how they compare. UPDATE (1:15 PM): Saul <A HREF="http://migop.blogs.com/blog/2006/11/articles_of_int_4.html">posted today</A> about the new Freep poll that came out. <blockquote>This late in the game, polls in Michigan are notoriously wrong…and misleading. This poll actually used samples taken on Holloween…a day many of our voters are out with their kids. The numbers are also way off from all the other polls taken in Michigan, including Democrat pollster Ed Sarpuolus EPIC-MRA’s poll. Dick DeVos and Mike Bouchard for the last two weeks are running closer than any other challenger have in recent history. The momentum and activity has been going our way. There is NO rationale reason, political event or other rationale that would justify a huge shift like the Detroit Free Press is showing…except a “bad” poll, which is to say an aberration or a bad sample…and that happens.</blockquote> I can tell you with certainty that he is just spinning for his side. That's not to say that DeVos can't win, but he's trying to keep morale among his volunteers up. The Halloween thing: One of the days the survey was taken may have been Halloween, but that's not relevant. Pollsters generally pick a random sample, and then keep calling them until they get a response over the span of a few days. By the third day, they eventually get responses from most everyone. Its not that some of their data was collected only on Halloween, but that Halloween was one of three days that they used to try and get responses from the same set of people. That's why polls are done over several days in the first place, because different kinds of people may be out of their house on any given day. Trends: He neglected to mention the new Mason-Dixon poll altogether, which is closer to the Freep poll. Generally, these national studies like Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, and Survey USA can be counted on to be very reliable. Looking at the trends based on all of the reputable polls done on this race, including ALL of the recent EPIC-MRA surveys, to say that things are trending in DeVos' favor would be an outright lie. http://www.nirmalm.com/new_polls_and_11_05_2006_trends_in_mi_gov_94#comments Michigan Governor Election Michigan public opinion Sun, 05 Nov 2006 12:31:53 -0500 Nirmal 94 at http://www.nirmalm.com New (!) EPIC-MRA: Granholm 49%, DeVos 42% http://www.nirmalm.com/new_epic_mra_granholm_49_devos_42_87 Yes, these are results released today, not the poll from yesterday. Once again, hat tip to <A HREF="http://wizardkitten.blogspot.com/2006/11/epic-poll-113-granholm-49-_116259584806496415.html">wizardkitten</A> for the scoop. Her post was up faster than the mechanism I use to track news caught the story, which is astounding. WK and <A HREF="http://www.pohlitics.com">Zack</A> are always ridiculously fast when it comes to featuring new TV advertisements and poll results, so be sure to check them out frequently if you want to stay up on that kind of stuff. Anyway, here's the good stuff: <blockquote>A Detroit News/WXYZ-TV poll of 600 likely voters taken Tuesday through Thursday shows the incumbent Democrat leading 49-42 with 9 percent undecided. Daily surveys earlier in the week had Granholm over the crucial 50-percent threshold. She led 52-42 and then 52-43.</blockquote> Margin of error is 4%, which means that there is no significant difference between Granholm's support in today's poll and their earliest poll this week. I emphasize this because a news organization (this time the Detroit News) has once again run with the headline <A HREF="http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061103/UPDATE/611030454">"Race for governor tightens in last days"</A>. We cannot say if there is a real difference or not. The only way to say that is if multiple polls are all saying the same thing, otherwise it is impossible to tell if the results are a fluke or just experimental variation. As it stands, every "shift" from the polling this week is within the margin of error. We know that DeVos is doing his own tracking, and Granholm is probably doing her own as well. If this is the case, we might be able to use all of these together to get a better sense of how things are shifting on a daily basis. Unless the sample sizes are huge, just one polling firm can't tell us that because any real shifts taking place are going to be smaller than our experimental error. Of course, the Detroit News/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV are paying for all of this polling, so they want a catchy headline to go along with it. "Everything stays the same" is not catchy. Although dishonest, "the race is tightening" is. They also have an incentive to talk about only "their" poll instead of all of the polling that has been done on this race, so it isn't going to present an accurate picture of where we're at. The other thing I'm concerned about is how fast they're putting these polls out. I hope that when they are releasing their results each day, they're talking about 600 independent samples, not just 200 new people a day. This means that the 600 people surveyed for the poll released on Thursday is a different 600 from the survey released today. If not, the margin of error for comparing day-to-day results is really much higher than 4% (since there are only 200 new people surveyed each day), and its impossible to make any conclusions about day to day fluctuations. The bottom line is that this will be news when someone else does this. I'll feel more comfortable about knowing where we're at when a different polling group releases some results. Again, having the tracking data from both campaigns to match with EPIC would give us much more solid results. This isn't to say that EPIC's methodology is bad or wrong, just that there isn't enough information to be releasing headlines like this. The EPIC results do seem to agree with the rest of the polling done on this race. I'm not updating the graph yet, since the new graph will be virtually unchanged from the old one. We will surely have more polls done on this race before the election, so I'll update it after the next one comes out. Anyway, I'm off to watch the Borat movie that comes out today. Peace. http://www.nirmalm.com/new_epic_mra_granholm_49_devos_42_87#comments Michigan Governor Election Michigan public opinion Fri, 03 Nov 2006 21:56:38 -0500 Nirmal 87 at http://www.nirmalm.com Absentee ballots, Regional results. http://www.nirmalm.com/absentee_ballots_regional_results_85 Today's edition of MIRS (subscription only) included some info on the DeVos campaign's internal tracking polls. I would take everything from Mitchell with a grain of salt, because they are employed by Republicans and have an incentive to spin on DeVos' behalf. Still, there is some useful information here. <blockquote>Each night, a sample of 200 voters is taken and it showed DeVos winning in Oakland and Macomb counties by small margins — 48 to 43 percent in Oakland and 47 to 43 percent in Macomb. Granholm had a 78-to 12-percent margin in Detroit and a 14-point lead in the rest of Wayne County. DeVos led on the west side of the state, northern lower Michigan and the Upper Peninsula. Granholm was ahead in lower mid-Michigan, including Lansing, and the thumb region of Bay City-Saginaw-Midland. The two contenders split the gender vote. Granholm won the women 55 to 36 percent and DeVos got the men with a smaller margin, 46 to 43 percent. Granholm is also winning the absentee vote by a 52 to 36 percent spread. As for undecided voters, 25 percent are leaning toward Granholm, but 50 percent are leaning toward DeVos.</blockquote> Absentees: The Michigan Republicans made a concerted effort to get their die-hard supporters to vote absentee this year. Although the Granholm campaign also sent out e-mails about absentee voting, the Republicans started pushing absentee voting early and they talked about it frequently. Their unusual emphasis on absentee voting included posts on Saul's blog and a spot on the front page of the DeVos for Governor website dedicated to getting people to vote absentee. Even though they pushed absentee voting as extensively as they did, Granholm is still winning the absentee vote by a wide margin. This could be explained by differing absentee voter strategies between the two campaigns, that the people who tend to vote absentee are not representative of people that vote overall, or it might reflect how lopsided things actually are. Just for our reference as we're thinking about the results on November 8, let's take a look at some of the regions they mentioned: Oakland County: Their poll shows DeVos winning Oakland County 48 to 43. In 2002, Granholm won Oakland County 50 to 48, and in 2004 Kerry and Bush were even at 49/49. Assuming their numbers are correct and statistically significant (internal polls usually skew in favor of the person paying for the poll), their better performance could be explained by Ruth Johnson hailing from Oakland County. Most polls are assumed to give their "margin of error" at a 95% level of confidence, which usually means a sample of 600 or more for +/- 4%. Since they are using such a small sample size, DeVos and Granholm are likely statistically even here (can't say with certainty that one is higher than the other). Turnout: 51% in 2002, and 74% in 2004. Macomb County: They have DeVos winning in Macomb County 47 to 43. Again, its an internal poll so its probably skewed in favor of DeVos, and the margin of error is likely bigger than 4%, which makes it a statistical dead heat. Granholm lost 47 to 51 in 2002, and Kerry lost 49 to 50 in 2004. I wasn't able to find any turnout statistics. Detroit: Granholm won 94 to 5 in 2002, and Kerry won 94 to 6 in 2004. Given that, their numbers for Detroit don't seem right at all. Given that the DeVos campaign has ignored Detroit, I doubt anything has drastically changed from 2002 and 2004. Wayne County: Granholm won 68 to 31 in 2002, and Kerry won 70 to 30 in 2004. Also mentioned today in the news was Livingston County and Genesee County. Livingston County: From the <A HREF="http://www.mlive.com/news/aanews/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1162569213177850.xml&coll=2">Ann Arbor News</A>: <blockquote>Joan Runyan, the Livingston County elections coordinator, said she and County Clerk Margaret Dunleavy are predicting a turnout of 60 percent to 65 percent of the county's 128,376 registered voters. Runyan said that prediction compares with a voter turnout of 53 percent in the 2002 election and 75.6 percent turnout in the 2004 presidential election.</blockquote> Livingston County went 62 to 37 for Posthumus in 2002, and 63 to 37 for Bush. Genesee County: From the <A HREF="http://www.mlive.com/news/fljournal/index.ssf?/base/news-0/116256559357380.xml&coll=5">Flint Journal</A>: <blockquote>Ultimately, elections are all about numbers, and four years ago Genesee County delivered more than 130,000 votes. That was more than 4 percent of the statewide total and more than the number of votes that divided Granholm and Republican candidate Dick Posthumus. It gave Granholm a boost of nearly 30,000 votes - more than one-fifth her margin of victory. She's looking for more of the same this time around, but Republicans are trying to build on gains they've made in recent years to shrink that margin.</blockquote> Granholm won 60 to 39 in 2002, and Kerry won 60 to 40 in 2004. I'll look at past year's results from some more regions tomorrow. http://www.nirmalm.com/absentee_ballots_regional_results_85#comments Michigan Governor Election Fri, 03 Nov 2006 18:18:37 -0500 Nirmal 85 at http://www.nirmalm.com New MDP Ad http://www.nirmalm.com/new_mdp_ad_83 Hat tip to <A HREF="http://wizardkitten.blogspot.com/2006/11/granholm-mdp-ad-jedi-new-ad-from-mdp.html">wizardkitten</A>. <object width="425" height="350"> <param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/krbU1F0zLmg"></param> <param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/krbU1F0zLmg" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object> http://www.nirmalm.com/new_mdp_ad_83#comments Michigan Governor Election Fri, 03 Nov 2006 17:49:40 -0500 Nirmal 83 at http://www.nirmalm.com New McCain Ad for DeVos http://www.nirmalm.com/new_mccain_ad_for_devos_82 A new DeVos ad features John McCain: <object width="425" height="350"> <param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/LegD_QbtEP4"></param> <param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/LegD_QbtEP4" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object> John McCain won Michigan over George W. Bush in 2000, and continues to be one of the <A HREF="http://strategicvision.biz/political/michigan_poll_110206.htm">most popular Republicans</A> among Republicans here in Michigan. Given his intention to run in 2008, McCain probably doesn't mind the free airtime that he's getting here. Is McCain's popularity in Michigan (among Republicans) enough to move some numbers? At this stage of the game, I'm not sure. Like the Dobson ad, this feels like another attempt to increase Republican turnout. What do you think? http://www.nirmalm.com/new_mccain_ad_for_devos_82#comments Michigan Governor Election Fri, 03 Nov 2006 14:40:34 -0500 Nirmal 82 at http://www.nirmalm.com EPIC-MRA: Granholm 52%, Amway Guy 43% http://www.nirmalm.com/epic_mra_granholm_52_amway_guy_43_80 The <A HREF="http://abclocal.go.com/wjrt/story?section=local&id=4721777">latest EPIC-MRA poll</A> shows Granholm leading DeVos 52 percent to 43 percent. They sampled 600 likely voters over the past three days, with a margin of error of 4 percent. The previous EPIC-MRA results, released Tuesday, showed Granholm leading DeVos 52% to 42%. Unfortunately, this has led WILX 10 to falsely claim that the "<A HREF="http://www.wilx.com/news/headlines/4553222.html">Race for Governor Gap Tightens</A>." This is simply untrue. The margin of error is 4%, so a 1% difference in the results is not significant. <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/77?size=_original"><IMG SRC="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/files/images/11.02.2006migovtrends_0.preview.PNG" width=400></A> View <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/77">"preview" size</A>. View <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/77?size=_original">"full" size</A>. We know that we can increase our certainty of the results by looking at many polls that have been conducted on the race in the recent past. By looking at all of the reputable polls done on MI-Gov, we can conclude that there has not been a major shift in the dynamics of this race. This is the time when undecideds start finalizing their vote decisions, and Granholm appears to be picking up support faster than DeVos. According to the most recent EPIC poll, Debbie Stabenow leads Mike Bouchard 51 percent to 38 percent (making the <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/75">NRSC Ad buy</A> all the more confusing). They also polled Prop. 2 and Prop. 5, but polling of ballot initiatives is usually unreliable. Interestingly, the <A HREF="http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061102/UPDATE/611020461">Detroit News</A> reports that religious conservatives do not plan to turn out as strongly as they had previously indicated. <blockquote>A surprising development -- and not a good omen for DeVos -- is the falloff among religious conservatives who intend to vote. They made up half of all likely voters in a poll published Oct. 5, but that group dropped to 43 percent in the new poll. Those are Michiganians counted on by DeVos: nearly two-thirds of voters in that segment favor him over Granholm.</blockquote> To help counter this, the "Citizens for Traditional Values" has paid for an <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/79">ad featuring James Dobson</A> to help increase the turnout among religious conservatives in Michigan. The ad alludes to Jon Stryker of the <A HREF="http://miprogresscoalition.org/">Michigan Coalition for Progress</A>. http://www.nirmalm.com/epic_mra_granholm_52_amway_guy_43_80#comments Michigan Governor Election Michigan public opinion Thu, 02 Nov 2006 19:06:40 -0500 Nirmal 80 at http://www.nirmalm.com James Dobson GOTV Ad http://www.nirmalm.com/james_dobson_gotv_ad_79 This get-out-the-vote ad featuring James Dobson is intended to help increase turnout among religious conservatives in Michigan. The ad alludes to Jon Stryker of the <A HREF="http://miprogresscoalition.org/">Michigan Coalition for Progress</A>. <object width="425" height="350"> <param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/pQLN0OLavEw"></param> <param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/pQLN0OLavEw" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object> (via <A HREF="http://lunchbucketconservative.com/2006/11/02/dr-james-dobson-gotv-ad.aspx">Lunchbucket Conservative</A>) http://www.nirmalm.com/james_dobson_gotv_ad_79#comments Michigan Governor Election Thu, 02 Nov 2006 18:54:22 -0500 Nirmal 79 at http://www.nirmalm.com 11.02.2006 Trends in MI-Gov http://www.nirmalm.com/11_02_2006_trends_in_mi_gov_78 <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/77?size=_original"><IMG SRC="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/files/images/11.02.2006migovtrends_0.preview.PNG" width=400></A> View <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/77">"preview" size</A>. View <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/77?size=_original">"full" size</A>. Thanks to <A HREF="http://wizardkitten.blogspot.com/2006/11/new-strategic-vision-poll-granholm-50.html">wizardkitten</A> for the heads up on the new Strategic Vision results. EDIT: Updated with the new EPIC/MRA results (from today, not Tuesday). More on that soon. http://www.nirmalm.com/11_02_2006_trends_in_mi_gov_78#comments Michigan Governor Election Michigan public opinion Thu, 02 Nov 2006 14:44:32 -0500 Nirmal 78 at http://www.nirmalm.com DeVos lies. Again. http://www.nirmalm.com/devos_lies_again_74 <A HREF="http://www.mlive.com/news/grpress/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1162474515131230.xml&coll=6">GRP: DeVos' prep football career scrutinized by ex-coach</A> According to the Grand Rapids Press, DeVos was less than honest about his high school football leadership experience. <blockquote>DeVos recounts a conversation he had with then-head varsity football coach Frank Rosengren: "He and I took a walk right behind this building (the old gym). It was a warm day and I remember he told me, 'Dick, I am going to start you because you have leadership skills and the team responds to your leadership.' " (snip) Rosengren, 69, is now retired and living in Elk Rapids. He said the conversation never took place. He never walked with DeVos behind the gym for the coach-athlete heart-to-heart, Rosengren said, and he's certain DeVos never started as a quarterback in a varsity football game. "He used my name and it isn't true," said Rosengren, a Democrat. "There may be other people that played on that team that knew better. It just isn't right."</blockquote> DeVos misleads even on little things like what he was like in high school. Is this someone that voters can trust? The most alarming thing about the reaction of the DeVos camp was their attempt to smear Rosengren for his statement. <blockquote>"It wouldn't surprise me if a Democrat was trying to create some revisionist history," said DeVos spokesman John Truscott. DeVos is a "decent, honorable person who's been subjected to some of the nastiest stuff I've seen in my career," Truscott added. "I'm sure the MEA (Michigan Education Association) bosses came down on this guy and told him to say this."</blockquote> This seems wrong to me. This man didn't ask to be involved in the political process, he was dragged in by the DeVos camp in the first place. The DeVos people cited Rosengren, apparently without his permission. When he moved to correct the record, they publicly smeared his character. Given that Rosengren is 69 and retired, to imply that he could somehow be manipulated by the MEA is a ludicrous assertion. Wizardkitten, who knew Rosengren personally, believes that Rosengren <A HREF="http://wizardkitten.blogspot.com/2006/11/truscott-attacks-former-forest-hills.html">wouldn't lie about</A> his experiences with DeVos. <blockquote> In this article, Truscott basically calls him a liar and says he is a puppet for the MEA. John Truscott has to be one of the most deplorable figures on the political scene in Michigan today. Here he proves that he doesn't know what the hell he is talking about. Frank Rosengren would never lie about something like this- the man had no agenda, unlike some others out there that I remember. Attention all teachers- this is the kind of treatment you can expect from a DeVos administration. If you say something bad about Dick, you will be savaged.</blockquote> Couldn't have put it better myself. http://www.nirmalm.com/devos_lies_again_74#comments Michigan Governor Election Thu, 02 Nov 2006 12:43:52 -0500 Nirmal 74 at http://www.nirmalm.com More than $50 Million spent on MI-Gov Ads so far http://www.nirmalm.com/more_than_50_million_spent_on_mi_gov_ads_so_far_60 The <A HREF="http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/business/index.ssf?/base/news-38/1162422852272610.xml&storylist=mibusiness">Associated Press</A> (Kathy Barks Hoffman, great reporter) just released an article discussing the ad spending in Michigan's gubernatorial race. According to the Michigan Campaign Finance Network, ad spending for this election has exceeded $50 million. From the article: <blockquote>LANSING, Mich. (AP) — More than $50 million has been spent so far in ads for the governor's race, with even more ad time being bought for the closing days of the campaign, it was announced Wednesday. The biggest spender so far has been the campaign of GOP candidate Dick DeVos, which has spent $27 million since it began advertising in mid-February. Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm's campaign has spent $7.6 million, according to the nonpartisan Michigan Campaign Finance Network, which collected the data.</blockquote> That's not even including other expenditures such as campaign staff, consulting, and GOTV expenses. When all is said and done, I'm guessing that Mr. DeVos' expenditures will be significantly higher than that. Its good to know that an election can't be bought by people like Dick DeVos. Although DeVos will grossly outspend Granholm by the time all is said and done, people haven't accepted his message in the way that conventional wisdom dictates that they might. Granted, Granholm herself is a formidable fundraiser and has tried to keep up pace, and a money disadvantage is a disadvantage no matter how you look at it. Still, its remarkable how DeVos' record has kept pace with him despite his disproportionate spending. What amuses me about all of this is the furor over Jon Stryker and the kind of money that he's throwing around with the MI Progress Coalition. Even though Stryker's spending won't even come close to a fraction of what DeVos' spending, Republicans are quick to scapegoat him the same way they do George Soros. To them, its okay if DeVos pours millions of his inherited personal fortune into an election, but they cry foul as soon as someone does so for the other side. Nevermind the fact that they outspend us at the legislative level every election cycle, they've also got their own 3rd party organizations getting involved (like the Michigan Chamber of Commerce every cycle). Hopefully, this will help them get serious about some real campaign finance reform. On a completely unrelated note, I really enjoyed a recent post on Christine Barry's blog about <A HREF="http://christinebarry.com/2006/10/30/untitled-post/">the value of Unions</A>. Along with <A HREF="http://christinebarry.com/?p=126">this post</A>, it has changed the way that I view the labor movement. http://www.nirmalm.com/more_than_50_million_spent_on_mi_gov_ads_so_far_60#comments Michigan Governor Election Wed, 01 Nov 2006 20:20:31 -0500 Nirmal 60 at http://www.nirmalm.com 11.01.2006 Trends in MI-Gov http://www.nirmalm.com/11_01_2006_trends_in_mi_gov_55 <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/54?size=_original"><IMG SRC="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/files/images/11.01.2006MIGovTrends.preview.PNG" width=400></A> View <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/54">"preview" size</A>. View <A HREF="http://www.capitalviewpoint.com/node/54?size=_original">"full" size</A>. Thanks to <A HREF="http://wizardkitten.blogspot.com/2006/10/new-epic-poll-1031-granholm-52-devos.html">wizardkitten</A> for the heads up on the new EPIC-MRA results. http://www.nirmalm.com/11_01_2006_trends_in_mi_gov_55#comments Michigan Governor Election Michigan public opinion Wed, 01 Nov 2006 08:58:43 -0500 Nirmal 55 at http://www.nirmalm.com Elisa (DeVos TV Commercial) http://www.nirmalm.com/elisa_devos_tv_commercial_53 Have you seen the new Dick DeVos TV commercial featuring his daughter, Elissa DeVos? You can <A HREF="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6jONql9Uv0">watch the original ad</A> on YouTube. I have to give credit where credit is due... its a cute ad. Still, I think I like the remake more: <object width="425" height="350"> <param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/U03c1QTCa4Y"></param> <param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/U03c1QTCa4Y" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object> HILARIOUS!!!!! http://www.nirmalm.com/elisa_devos_tv_commercial_53#comments Michigan Governor Election Thu, 26 Oct 2006 21:09:50 -0400 Nirmal 53 at http://www.nirmalm.com
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