Suckerfish

Nader at 8% in MI?

You may have come across a recent poll by EPIC-MRA showing Ralph Nader with 8% of the presidential vote in Michigan, and a narrative that attributes this result to dissatisfaction over the Michigan primary. Here's why that argument is flawed:

1) EPIC-MRA has a track record inaccuracy, most recently ranking dead last in predicting the outcome of the MI GOP primary.
2) EPIC-MRA didn't disclose methodological details like question wording, as firms who release their results to the media ought to do. Most importantly, which candidates were offered as possible choices to respondents?
3) Even if this result were true, without further data it is difficult to claim that the Michigan primary controversy caused people to prefer Nader. Were self-identified Democrats who picked Nader even aware of the Michigan primary issue?

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