Can the DCCC Win Michigan in '08?

Although our legislative priorities now are more important than the elections up ahead, it would also be useful to start thinking about some of our upcoming races. Given the DCCC's updated criteria for targeting U.S. House races, we need to start discussing how we want to approach these elections in 2008.

According to the Hotline, Michigan is "the one untapped resource left for" Democrats to increase their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Michigan Republicans currently hold a 9 to 6 lead despite losing the popular vote, so this assertion seems reasonable. In particular, MI-09 (Representative Knollenberg) and MI-07 (Representative Walberg) are identified as "must contest" districts.

Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-MI 09) didn't fare much better against liberal talk show host Nancy Skinner (D). He won only 51% of the vote - the first time he's won by a single-digit margin.

The Skinner campaign took a gutsy approach and did a great job setting themselves up as the "opposition" to the corrupt Knollenberg. Their campaign operatives were energetic and their field and Internet outreach was beyond impressive. However, I feel that they should have been able to raise more money in such an affluent district. As first-time candidates, Eric Massa and Tim Walz raised $1.4 million and $1.2 million in poorer districts. Compared to that, the $400K that Nancy Skinner raised feels underwhelming.

Given the funding disparity in the race, its close outcome is a testament to just how unpopular Knollenberg is in his district. We probably won't have the advantages that we did in 2006, but with increased name ID and better fundraising, some activists feel that Nancy could give it another go. However, others believe that someone more in tune with the district's ideological leanings would have a much better chance at winning.

Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI 07) didn't even win a majority of the vote despite running against an underfunded opponent. And speculation abounds that ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz (R) could run as a Dem against him in '08.

Schwarz showed a high degree of party loyalty to the Republican Caucus in his voting behavior as a member of Congress, so it is difficult to make the case for Schwarz as a Democrat. If anything, he would be better served by mounting a Republican primary challenge or by running as an "Independent Republican" in the general election. What he decides is going to have a big impact on our ability to win this race.

I'll come out and say it: a less "absurd" candidate would serve us more well in this district. For perennial candidates, a Democratic "wave" year like 2006 is as good as it gets.

It is clear that a credible candidate will have a very good chance at winning this district. Walberg is too conservative and left a bad taste in a lot of peoples' mouths. The Republicans allocated significant resources (both in money and in appearances by high-profile figures) to keep this district in 2006, and there's no reason it will get any easier for them in 2008.

The article also mentions Thad McCotter as being potentially vulnerable.

I like the new DCCC targeting criteria, especially because it includes several of our districts that were neglected in 2006. The DCCC intends to target districts "where Republicans won by less than 5%, seats won by Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election, districts occupied by ethically challenged incumbents and Republican seats likely to open." Based on this, Knollenberg and Walberg will likely be targeted, and both Thad McCotter and Mike Rogers could be identified as well.

I've mentioned money, but money is by far from the only factor that is relevant to this process. The new DCCC criteria also places a strong emphasis on candidates that have significant netroots and grassroots support. This is important, because it allows bloggers and local activists to play an increased role in the election process, from candidate recruitment to the eventual outcomes of these races. Thankfully, we already have the District Watch blogs to start focusing on these districts at the individual level.

With all of this in mind, it is important that we start having a conversation about candidate recruitment and what qualities we are looking for, so that we can better help the party to develop winning candidates and ultimately effective legislators.