Suckerfish

Are Anti-War Democrats Moving Toward One Candidate?

Here's candidate support among Democratic primary voters who cited the Iraq war as their most important issue (from the exit polls):

Now that Obama has been pushing harder against Hillary on her vote to authorize the war, it will be interesting to compare these results to how he performs with the same group of voters tonight. It is imprecise because the dynamics of the race are different in each state, examining Democratic primary voters who cited the war as their top issue is a weak proxy for individuals who are strongly opposed to the war, and we don't have enough states spread across enough dates to get a good sense of what is going on.

We can get a better sense of how things are changing by comparing how Obama performs vs. Clinton with voters who cited the Iraq war as their top issue to how Obama performs vs. Clinton among all voters in each state. In other words, we want to know how Obama has performed with this group relative to how he does with all voters over time (click for larger image):

So far he's not increasing his share of the anti-war vote relative to his overall performance, we'll know if that has changed in a few hours.

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